FX Daily: Time to think about the midterms?

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Nov 14, 2022FX Daily: The mother of all corrections | ING THINK-0.7%
• Nov 21, 2023FX Daily: Renminbi shorts on the run | articles | ING THINK-0.6%
• May 30, 2025FX Daily: Softer US spending weighs on the dollar | ING THINK-0.5%
• Nov 15, 2023FX Daily: Dollar bears may have jumped the gun | articles | ING THINK-0.9%
• Jan 24, 2024FX Daily: Unwinding the spurious dollar rally | articles | ING THINK-0.4%

After 78 past neutral macro events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.

• Sep 20, 2019China cuts rates via a new tool | articles | ING THINK+1.7%
• Sep 22, 2023The Global Sugar Shortage Is About to Ease Thanks to a Corn Supply Boom | Financial Post+1.4%
• May 9, 2017Goldman Sachs: Why the commodities rally might be different this time+0.6%
• Nov 5, 2024DMC Profit Margins Hit All-Time Highs+1.8%
• Jun 25, 2021What a bucket of chicken wings might tell the Fed+5.6%

After 50 past neutral macro events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Jan 27, 2026Dollar sinks to four-year low as intervention risk lifts yen-0.1%
• Oct 16, 2019China Unshackles Daily Yuan Fixing, Suggesting Flexibility Ahead - Caixin Global+0.0%
• Oct 29, 2019PBOC set the onshore yuan at its strongest in 2 months+0.5%
• Oct 27, 2026First Thing Today | Soybeans see small bounce as Brazilian real stabilizes - Pro Farmer+0.5%
• Feb 3, 2017LIVESTOCK MARKETS: Commodity bubble to start inflating+1.3%