
USDA's Dairy Margin Coverage data show September milk-over-feed margins hit an all-time high of $15.57/cwt. The high margin came from record CME spot barrel prices and cheap feed, with corn under $4/bu and soymeal under $350/ton.
The All-Milk price was $25.50/cwt.
Record margins encourage dairies to expand output, which raises future demand for feed such as corn, soymeal and hay while signaling strong milk demand in the near term.
After 20 past bullish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.1% to +2.4%), and +2.4% over 20.
After 78 past neutral macro events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 73 past neutral macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.