
The National Pork Producers Council reports the cost of raising pigs in February 2023 was 13% above a year earlier, driven by feed costs up 19%. Producer-sold hogs averaged about $75/cwt in early 2023, well below the estimated $100 breakeven, and USDA projects live hog prices down 14.3% for the year.
Weak hog prices against high feed costs are squeezing producer margins, which could cut future herd growth and feed demand from hog operations.
After 17 past bearish macro events, HOGS moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.5% to +0.8%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 78 past neutral macro events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 73 past neutral macro events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.