
CropLife's outlook for the global nitrogen market highlights six factors for 2019, including energy prices in Europe and Asia. The article notes urea prices hit multi-decade lows before rising in the second half of 2018, and that demand growth in South America and Asia continues.
Energy costs drive nitrogen production expenses, so gas and coal price shifts can push fertilizer prices and farm input costs, which in turn affect corn production economics.
After 37 past neutral macro events, NATGAS moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.2% to +12.9%), and -1.1% over 20.
After 78 past neutral macro events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.