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CF Industries' Bert Frost outlines six factors for the global nitrogen market in 2019, noting that prices rose in the second half of 2018 after urea hit multi-decade lows. Key drivers include European and Asian energy costs, capacity additions, and demand growth in South America and Asia.
Energy costs are the largest input for nitrogen production, so rising gas or coal prices in Europe and Asia would push urea and ammonia prices higher, raising feed-grain input costs.
agribusinessglobal.comMatt HopkinsMar 4, 2019After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 37 past neutral macro events, Natural Gas moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.2% to +12.9%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
