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China's pork production rose 4.1% in 2025 to 59 million tonnes, while average pig prices fell 15% to 14.49 yuan/kg. Beijing plans to reduce output in 2026, with the sow herd expected to fall to 39 million head.
Lower Chinese pork output and a shrinking sow herd reduce hog feed demand over time, a bearish signal for feed grains and meal, while lower imports reduce demand for offal and related feed inputs.
ahdb.org.ukMar 4, 2026After 17 past bearish macro events, Lean Hogs moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.5% to +0.8%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
