Brent crude rose 2.5% to $118 a barrel and WTI gained 2.3% to $104 as traders reacted to reports that Trump is weighing fresh attacks after the midterms. Brent is up 12% in October to a six-month high.
Higher crude lifts diesel and freight costs and tends to support biofuel-linked vegetable oils and feed input prices, while tight refined product inventories keep upward pressure on energy costs for feed mills.
After 654 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +2.0% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.6% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 624 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.2% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 247 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -3.6% to +9.2%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.