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US crude rose more than 3% to settle near $100 after reports that President Trump was dissatisfied with Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The strait remains effectively closed to tanker traffic.
The UAE also said it would exit OPEC effective May 1.
Continued closure of Hormuz cuts Gulf export flows and supports energy prices. Higher crude feeds through to diesel, freight and nitrogen fertilizer costs for feed production.
cnbc.comSpencer Kimball, Lee Ying Shan, Sam MeredithMay 1, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
