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Near-term oil prices reached a record premium over later-dated deliveries after Trump vowed more attacks on Iran. The Israeli-led war has removed millions of barrels per day from global supply, driving energy prices to multi-year highs and causing fuel shortages in oil-reliant countries.
A record backwardation signals acute physical tightness, which pushes up near-term fuel and energy costs and makes forward feed-cost hedging more expensive.
reuters.comGeorgina Mccartney, Arathy SomasekharApr 2, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
