
Oil rose more than 2% on Tuesday after Trump canceled meetings with Iranian officials and promised protesters help was on the way. Iran's security forces have reportedly killed hundreds of protesters, and the government has cut internet access.
Threatened US action against Iran raises the risk of supply disruption, pushing crude higher and increasing energy costs for feed production and transport.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Trump's promise of help for Iranian protesters and cancelled talks raised the risk of Iranian supply disruption, lifting prices more than 2% on Jan 13.