
Markets fell across the board after the June WASDE, with corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks mostly unchanged from May. Wheat stocks came in below the prior month and at the low end of trade guesses.
Traders then shifted focus to weather and the June 30 acreage report.
With no new supporting data, the report left prices to follow weather and acreage expectations. The wheat carryout at the low end of estimates is the only supportive element.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.