
USDA's first WASDE since the shutdown kept corn yield at 186 bpa and soybean yield at 53 bpa, with trade guesses at 184 and 53.1. Corn carryout rose 34 million bushels while soybean carryout fell 10 million, and China's reported purchases were well short of its commitments.
Corn carryout increases and doubts about Chinese purchases leave the trade without the bullish adjustment it expected, pressuring corn and soybean prices.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.