The offshore yuan held near 6.74 per dollar, its strongest since February 2023, as China's July manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 and non-manufacturing PMI to 49.0. Q2 GDP also missed the 4.5%-5% target range.
Weak Chinese growth data points to softer feed demand from China, which is bearish for soybeans and meal, while the stronger yuan partly offsets this by lowering import costs.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 362 past bearish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.