
Newsquawk compared the August WASDE end-stocks with analyst estimates and prior figures. US corn stocks came in at 1.653 billion bushels, below the 1.737 billion estimate, and soybean stocks at 320 million exceeded the 300 million estimate.
US wheat stocks of 717 million were slightly below the 720 million estimate, and global corn, soybean and wheat stocks were near expectations.
The corn stocks miss signals a tighter supply than traders expected, which is supportive for prices. The soybean stocks beat points to a softer soybean outlook, and the small wheat shortfall adds mild support.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.