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The US Federal Reserve raised its federal funds range to 3.75%-4.00% while Brazil's Copom cut the Selic by 25 bps to 13.75%, narrowing the rate differential between the two countries. The weekly review says the exchange rate stayed relatively stable because both moves were largely expected.
A narrower rate gap and election-driven sensitivity can lift the dollar against the real, which affects Brazilian export pricing and the dollar value of soy and corn offers.
stonex.comLeonel MattosSep 21, 2026After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
