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Shipping analysts report the Strait of Hormuz has been largely shut for over three months, with traffic below 10% of normal and insurers withdrawing cover. Houthi attacks continue to disrupt Red Sea traffic, and El Niño threatens harvests and shipping options.
Chokepoint disruption and insurance withdrawal raise freight costs and fertilizer prices, which squeeze grain margins and feed costs.
world-grain.comMichael KingJul 1, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
