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Freight markets have become volatile again after US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026 led Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping lanes were rerouted and the disruption spread across transport sectors worldwide.
Higher crude and LNG costs and rerouted vessels raise grain freight and delivered feed costs for importers, while the strait's closure also disrupts fertilizer flows.
world-grain.comCrystal Futrell, Matt Noltemeyer, Emily WenerstromJun 12, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
