
Clean Fuels Alliance America CEO Donnell Rehagen said EPA's low Renewable Fuel Standard volume obligations for 2023-2025 are restraining biodiesel and renewable diesel demand. Producers are pursuing new domestic markets and exports, and RIN prices fell from about $1.70 in July to about $1.10 in December.
Low RVOs cap biomass-based diesel demand for soybean oil, weakening a key feedstock outlet and the crush margin. Export growth only partly offsets this.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.