
The EPA says it likely will not finalize 2026 biofuel volume obligations until December 2025, according to the Biden administration's regulatory agenda. Industry had expected a November 1 statutory deadline.
Biodiesel and renewable diesel groups say the delay has contributed to a collapse in RIN credit prices.
Delayed mandate clarity creates uncertainty over biomass-based diesel demand for soybean oil and tallow, pressuring feedstock demand and prices. A possible administration change adds further policy risk.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.