
The EPA will proceed with its plan to account for waived biofuel volumes using a three-year rolling average of DOE-recommended small refinery exemptions. The final rule also keeps the 15 billion gallon conventional biofuel requirement, and ethanol and biofuel groups criticized the decision.
The mandate supports corn-based ethanol demand, but the accounting method leaves less biodiesel demand than the industry expected. This keeps soybean oil under pressure and adds uncertainty for future exemptions.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.