
President Milei renewed his pledge to eliminate export taxes on agricultural products, as farmers grow impatient with the policy. Argentine farmers say the government's currency measures have made exports less competitive, so they are holding dollar earnings.
Export tax cuts would raise farm-gate incentives to sell soybeans and meal, increasing Argentine export supply and pressuring world soymeal prices if enacted. Until then, farmers' holding behavior keeps near-term supply constrained.
After 554 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, SBM moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, SBO moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.