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Argentine farmers increased forward selling of 2019-20 soybeans in the last four months of 2019 to avoid higher export taxes that are now in effect. Exporters had registered 5.52 million tonnes of forward sales by Dec.
18, versus 588,000 tonnes a year earlier, according to a USDA GAIN report. USDA expects exports to fall from 9.1 million tonnes in 2018-19 to 8.2 million this year.
Heavy forward sales front-loaded Argentine supply, and farmer selling is expected to slow, which tightens near-term offers of whole beans and meal. Export taxes that favour soy products over beans could shift crush and export flows.
world-grain.comArvin DonleyJan 9, 2020After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
