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Argentina's grain and oilseed sector is being shaped by government policy, currency devaluation and the U.S.-China trade dispute. A four peso per dollar export tax imposed in September 2018 added about 9.3% to exporter costs, and the USDA attaché flagged the October 2019 presidential election as a policy risk for planting decisions.
Export taxes and election-linked policy uncertainty can change Argentine export volumes and farmer selling, which affects world meal, corn and wheat supplies.
world-grain.comChris LyddonSep 9, 2019After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 137 past neutral policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
