
Soy and corn sales in Argentina were expected to stay slow in the week, with farmers focused on harvest. Argentina taxes soy exports at 26% and derived oil and meal at 24.5%, and President Milei hinted that a temporary tax cut expiring at end-June would not be extended.
Expectations that export duties will rise after June encourage farmers to hold or sell before then, shaping near-term Argentine export flows and Argentine meal and oil availability.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.