
Argentine farmers are delaying soybean sales amid an unclear foreign exchange outlook. They are also watching soy export tax rates, currently 26% for soybeans and 24.5% for oil and meal, and hope for further cuts after a temporary reduction expires in June.
Earlier weather damage in the 2024/25 season has also made producers more cautious.
Slower farmer selling tightens near-term export availability and supports Argentine soybean and meal prices. Any export tax cut after June could bring sales forward and pressure prices.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.