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Conab projects Brazil's 2025/26 grain harvest at 354.8 million tons on 84.4 million hectares, slightly above the prior record. Planting has been slow, and intense heat and irregular rain in central Minas Gerais, eastern Mato Grosso and western Mato Grosso do Sul have caused delays, replanting and soybean establishment problems.
Fertilizer spending reached US$8.8 billion, 5.2% of imports.
Weather-related planting delays and replanting raise yield risk for Brazilian soybeans and corn, supporting prices. Higher phosphorus and fertilizer costs may also cut input use and future output.
belacereais.com.brDec 29, 2025After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 13 past weather events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -0.2% to +0.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
