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Brazilian market experts discussed El Niño, which is already established in the Pacific and expected to strengthen, at a September 16 event. NOAA gives over 90% odds of a very strong event, with peak expected October to December during the planting of the summer crop.
Irregular rain in the Midwest and Matopiba, heat, and low river levels threaten yields and barge logistics for corn and soybeans, a supply risk that tends to support feed grain and meal prices.
belacereais.com.brSep 16, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
