
Indian monsoon rains recovered after a very dry June, with July rainfall 4.6% above average and the August surplus running higher. Fertiliser sales of urea, DAP and NPK complexes have picked up, and kharif planted area has narrowed its gap with last year to 2.3%.
Stronger rainfall and planting support rising Indian fertilizer demand and reduced price pressure from companies cutting prices, which lifts import needs for urea and phosphates.
After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
After 13 past weather events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -0.2% to +0.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.