Soybean prices fell on September 30, 2022 after USDA's Grain Stocks report. Early Midwest harvest yield reports were mixed, with some fields beating expectations and others, especially west of the Mississippi, disappointing.
Analysts said the rains in the last 45 days averted a total crop failure.
Stocks data pressured soybean prices, while the mixed yields suggest a crop that is smaller than normal but not a disaster, which limits further upside.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.