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The EU Commission's MARS unit published its first 2023 yield forecast, projecting an average EU grain yield of 5.6 t/ha, up 2% from last year, with wheat at 5.77 t/ha (+4%). Forecasts vary by member state, with Portugal hit hard by drought (-15% for wheat) and several large producers such as France and Spain slightly below average.
Improving EU yield expectations point to a larger supply of wheat and barley, which is bearish for feed grain prices, while drought in Iberia is a localized risk that could limit that outlook.
zmp.deMar 20, 2023After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 770 past neutral report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
