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Commodities gained strongly in January, heading for their best monthly performance since April 2016, led by energy and industrial metals. Markets are focused on upcoming events including the UK Brexit vote, the FOMC meeting, and U.S.-China trade talks in Washington.
Broad commodity strength and upcoming U.S.-China trade talks create a macro backdrop that can influence feed grain and energy-linked input prices. Slowing global growth and the IMF downgrade pose demand risks.
home.saxoOle HansenJan 25, 2019After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
