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WisdomTree summarizes a podcast with Citi's Ed Morse, who expects commodities to shift from contango to backwardation as supply tightens. He sees Q4 oil supply down 9-10% year over year against demand down 4-5%, drawing inventories.
Tightening oil balances and a move to backwardation raise crude prices and raise input costs for biofuels and freight, which feeds through to feed-ingredient economics.
wisdomtree.comOct 6, 2020After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
