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US stocks fell and the dollar reached its highest level in more than two years after the ISM manufacturing index showed contraction for the first time since February 2016. Trade worries also intensified as new US tariffs on Chinese goods took effect over the Labor Day weekend.
The ISM contraction signals weaker US industrial demand and a stronger dollar, both of which pressure feed commodity prices. Tariff escalation with China also threatens US soybean and grain export flows.
financialpost.comReutersSep 3, 2019After 53 past bullish report events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The weak ISM manufacturing contraction on 9/3 undercut US growth expectations and fed into the dollar reversal the next day, after an initial spike to a two-year high.
