US corn futures fell to their lowest in more than a week after USDA raised its corn yield estimate to 168.4 bushels per acre, above analysts' expectations of 167.5. USDA cut its soybean yield to 46.9 bushels per acre, below the 47.3 expected, pushing soybeans to their highest since July.
A larger corn yield adds supply and pressures corn prices, while the smaller soybean yield tightens soy balance sheets and supports soybean and soymeal values.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.