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Soybean and other grain prices rose after Trump and Xi's G-20 dinner, where Trump said China would buy more US farm products and the US would hold tariffs at 10%. Agriculture Secretary Perdue said it was yet to be determined whether China would lift its retaliatory tariffs on US farm goods.
Market gains depend on China following through with purchases and removing its tariffs on US farm goods. Without explicit commitments, buyers should expect the rally to be limited.
thefencepost.comThe Hagstrom ReportDec 4, 2018After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Grain prices rose after the G-20 dinner as China was expected to buy more US farm products, directly describing the rally's sentiment catalyst.
