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Corn futures had their largest one-month rally on record in April 2021, with May corn up 31.1%, driven by Chinese import demand and a Brazilian drought. Export sales are near USDA's full-year estimate, and the safrinha crop was planted late with below-normal rainfall in Parana.
Tight US old-crop stocks and Brazilian safrinha losses point to pressure for higher USDA export estimates in the May WASDE. Strong cash bids and positive ethanol margins support corn prices.
iasg.comChad BurletMay 6, 2021After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
