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From December 18 to 22, 2023, the US closed two rail lines into Mexico, and March corn fell to a new 2023 low of $4.68 before ending at $4.73. Mexico has been the largest buyer of US corn this season.
March soybean meal was also lower but showed firmer support from tighter US supplies.
Losing Mexico rail access removes a key corn buyer and adds to ample 2023-24 supplies, pressuring corn. Tighter soybean meal supplies give that market more price support.
dtnpf.comTodd HultmanDec 26, 2023After 359 past bearish logistics events, CORN moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 167 past bullish logistics events, SBM moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.9%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Corn hit a 2023 low during the rail blockade, so a rebound from oversold levels was plausible once Mexico trade resumed.
