
The Eagle Pass and El Paso rail gateways to Mexico remained closed on the third day after CBP ordered the shutdown to divert personnel to migrant processing. Union Pacific and BNSF interchange nearly two dozen trains per day with Ferromex through these crossings.
Union Pacific estimated each day of closure costs the economy about $200 million.
The two gateways handle a large share of cross-border rail traffic, so the closure blocks grain trains and raises freight costs. Grain prices in the U.S. are likely to soften as shipments are held at origin.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.