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The dollar started the week of May 9, 2022 at marginal new highs, driven by Fed tightening, the war in Ukraine, and China's slowdown. Renminbi weakness has kept emerging-market currencies under pressure.
A stronger dollar lowers the local-currency cost of US commodity exports but raises costs for importers in weaker-currency markets, which can soften demand. Pressure on emerging-market currencies can also slow feed import purchases in those countries.
think.ing.comChris Turner, Francesco Pesole, Frantisek TaborskyMay 9, 2022After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Same-day FX note on a firmer dollar at new highs, with China's slowdown and renminbi weakness weighing on EM currencies, points to broad dollar strength and sentiment as drivers.
