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ING raised its 2018 USD/CNY forecast to 6.60 and shifted its view from yuan appreciation to depreciation. The analysis cites trade-war escalation and political risks in Italy and Spain as supporting a strong dollar trend.
A forecast of yuan weakness signals firmer dollar strength, which tends to pressure dollar-denominated feed commodity prices and can weigh on export competitiveness for US product.
think.ing.comMay 30, 2018After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
