Continued rain in the US Midwest has slowed corn and soybean harvests, delaying soft red winter wheat planting. Analysts expect farmers to cut soft red winter wheat acreage by 18 to 20 percent, and JP Morgan estimates a reduction of 1.5 million acres.
Hard red winter wheat planting conditions are reported as good.
Lower soft red winter wheat acreage and late sowing could reduce US wheat output, supporting Chicago wheat prices. Stable hard red winter area limits the impact on Kansas City contracts.
After 1,076 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.