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Flat crude prices rose nearly $5 a barrel after US sanctions on major Russian oil exporters were announced. Commentators said the sanctions could tighten markets that had been weakening, though the market remains sceptical after similar threats this year.
Crude term structure also strengthened.
If the sanctions hold, they would remove significant Russian supply and tighten balances, supporting crude and diesel prices. Buyers should watch whether the threat is enforced.
commoditycontext.comRory JohnstonOct 24, 2025After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
