
Oil futures rose on Friday, with U.S. crude up more than 9% for the week and Brent gaining about 5%, on fears of a U.S. attack on Iran. A fire at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery also lifted gasoline futures, while an OPEC meeting and possible U.S.-China trade easing added support.
Fears of conflict in the Middle East, which supplies more than a fifth of world oil, are the main driver of the rally and raise energy and freight costs for feed buyers. The refinery outage tightens regional fuel supply, adding to the upward price pressure.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.