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Brent rallied back above $70 a barrel and settled more than 2% higher as Hurricane Francine shut in roughly 675,000 b/d of US Gulf output. EIA data showed a crude inventory build, and European gas prices rose on LNG export concerns along the US Gulf Coast.
Hurricane-related production losses and LNG export risks support crude and natural gas prices, which raises energy and fertilizer-linked input costs.
think.ing.comWarren Patterson, Ewa MantheySep 12, 2024After 24 past bullish weather events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +2.8% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -1.9% to +5.2%), and +6.3% over 20.
After 40 past bullish weather events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -3.7% to +5.3%), and +6.1% over 20.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent rallied back above $70 on the same day as about 675,000 b/d of US Gulf output was shut in, confirming the supply-shock mechanism.
