US crude rose more than 2% on fears of long offshore production shutdowns as Hurricane Francine approached Louisiana. Brent settled at $70.61 and US crude at $67.31, and Cushing stocks fell 1.7 million barrels despite a crude inventory build.
Expected offshore shut-ins from the hurricane support crude prices, and tight Cushing stocks add to the upward pressure.
After 40 past bullish weather events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -3.7% to +5.3%), and +6.1% over 20.
After 24 past bullish weather events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +2.8% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -1.9% to +5.2%), and +6.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The prior-day rally on Francine fears set up the rebound and shows the storm premium building, though it falls just before the move.