Brazil's crop agency Conab, in its November 13 survey, forecast 2026/27 grain and oilseed output at 366.1 million tonnes, up 1.3% year on year but 0.3% below October's estimate. Soybean output is put at 181.6 million tonnes and corn at about 148 million tonnes across three crops, while rice is down 4.7% to 10.6 million tonnes and wheat is expected to fall by a third amid El Niño weather.
Larger soybean and corn supplies support feed meal and grain availability for Brazilian exporters and domestic feed users, which is mildly bearish for those prices, while the wheat and rice shortfalls tighten local supply and could lift feed ingredient costs.
After 793 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.