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Following weekend mutual attacks between Russia and Ukraine, the prospect of both countries resuming wheat exports has receded. Chicago wheat futures rose as much as 0.8% on Monday after falling the previous week to their lowest intraday level since August.
Continued disruption to Black Sea exports could tighten global wheat supply and prompt buyers to seek alternative origins, supporting prices.
After 363 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.