Reuters lists recent attacks on cargo vessels off Romania and Bulgaria, NATO members on the Black Sea, amid escalating Russia-Ukraine fighting in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. The factbox itemizes incidents from early October, including ships sunk or damaged with crew casualties.
Strikes on merchant shipping near Romanian and Bulgarian waters raise war-risk insurance and routing costs for Black Sea grain and oilseed cargoes, tightening export flows and supporting wheat and corn prices.
After 363 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.