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Commentary argues that the next global inflation shock could emerge in agriculture rather than at the fuel pump, as farmers face rising fertilizer and diesel costs. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 in September, its highest since November 2022, with cereal prices up 17.2% year-on-year.
An S&P Global report warns that energy disruptions, fertilizer shortages and El Niño could combine into a major food supply challenge.
Higher input costs and constrained fertilizer availability can cut future harvests with a months-long lag, which supports fertilizer prices and keeps grain prices firm even when energy prices ease.
forbesmiddleeast.comAmro Zakaria, Lubna Forzley, Naif AlMalikNov 15, 2026After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
