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Russian and Ukrainian forces have been conducting campaigns against each other's shipping in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea since summer, with attacks moving in October into the corridor off Romania and Bulgaria. Systematic strikes on merchant ships and port infrastructure have effectively halted agricultural exports from both countries.
With Black Sea grain and oilseed flows largely halted, global wheat, corn and sunflower-product supplies tighten, supporting prices for feed grains and meals while shipping risk premiums rise.
theins.pressVeaceslav Epureanu, Ekaterina MereminskayaNov 15, 2026After 363 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
